What Trump wants is for Iran to capitulate and come begging to him for a deal. That isn’t going to happen after he just burned the JCPOA. The failure of the deal inevitably shifts the political winds in Iran towards the hawks, and validates all their criticisms of the deal. Unless the other partners in the JCPOA can make up the economic benefits Iran was supposed to get, Iran will leave the deal completely.
So Trump will continue the escalation against Iran, seeking a capitulation that will never come, with Iran responding as it chooses. Bolton is a complete moron, and could easily blunder straight into a war. Trump is increasingly cornered by the failure of his North Korea and his Iran policy, because in both cases he must demand more than either can give. The end result will be acceleration of ICBM testing by North Korea and either a step by step withdrawal from the JCPOA by Iran, or the real possibility of Iran going nuclear quickly. They certainly have the ability to do so.
With Saudi Arabia buying a full nuclear program from Kushner, and warmongering neocons using the same program of economic strangulation against them that was used to prepare Iraq for invasion, Iran might decide to go nuclear quick, and they will announce that with an underground test, not a press conference. Expect epic twitter meltdown from Trump, and mass hysteria in the entire Imperial class.
The most immediate outcome I expect from the latest round of escalation from Trump is that support to the Houthis will be ramped up by Iran, in the form of increasingly sophisticated missiles and drones. The Saudis have been bombing civilian targets in Yemen since the beginning of the war. Now they are going to get a strong taste of Houthi revenge.
Will the Bernie left march against an Iran war? They don’t seem to give a shit about Venezuela, and most of them are just Democrats in che T-shirts. Does an Iran war even open a split between the MSNBC libs and the Bernie Democrats? Because the Iran deal was the big accomplishment of Obama’s diplomacy the Dems are mostly opposed to starting a war, but won’t have the spine to stop one if it breaks out.
A war with Iran is definitely the end of the Trump coalition, as the antiwar conservatives and libertarians are completely against it, and the dissident right will rally to Hezbollah, if anything. Meanwhile the breitbart right and Conservatism Inc will support the war in lock step, and so will every never-Trumper Republican and all the various swamp creatures that once denounced him.
The Democracy Now left that was the center of the Bush era antiwar movement has spent the Obama years supporting his regime change wars, and drinking up all the neocon war propaganda about Syria. As such it is now unable to serve as the center of the opposition, and frankly it was senile and rotten in the teeth to begin with. The antiwar movement against this war (if there is one), will be a strange coalition leaning at weird angles to the right.
For all of us in the new right, this is a battle for the soul of American Conservatism and the future of Right Populism. We have to draw a line with this war, and make everyone on the right choose a side. When Iran inflicts a brutal defeat on Trump, we make them eat that, we shove it down their fat throats. Our job is to start a fight with the Boomer-Breitbart warmonger right that is so viscous and over the line that the subsequent divide can never be healed. We see where fellow traveling with these pigs has gotten us. Trump has betrayed us at every turn. Now it is time for scorched earth.
The only thing the American pig understands is defeat.